April 26, 2017
When I am finished speaking at a conference or advertising event people often ask me how I can be so sure I'm right and other people people are wrong.
The answer is, I'm not.
I spent 41 years in the agency business. I worked on some very big brands including McDonald's, Toyota, Bank of America, AT&T and others. And I had a pretty successful career and did some reasonably successful work.
But that doesn't make me sure of anything. One thing I learned about advertising is that when you're trying to anticipate human behavior -- which is what marketers and advertisers do -- there are no sure things. All there are are likelihoods and probabilities.
This is why I am highly skeptical about what I hear and read from advertising and marketing experts these days. Particularly those of the digital stripe.
They tend to be awfully sure of themselves and very dismissive of those who disagree with them. They also tend to have a lot more opinions than experience.
It is certainly possible that they are brighter than I am and have more insight into consumer behavior. But, to be honest here, I really don't think so.
I've been asked to do a lot of interviews lately (it probably has something to do with the shit-storm over online advertising that the last six months has produced and my sudden promotion from idiot to genius.) Sooner or later, the interviewer usually gets around to this question: Why do you write your blog?
It's a good question for someone who's been out of the agency business for four years and is supposed to be quietly retired and planting tulips or something.
And as I think about it, it becomes pretty clear why I continue to do this. I believe we marketers think we know a lot of things that we don't really know. I think we do a lot of faking. I know I certainly did, and I don't think the average marketing person is that much smarter than me.
I think it's important that we have more humility and understand that there's a lot about human economic behavior that we don't understand. I like to point that out. I like to find the contradictions and expose the weak points and the phonies.
I see my job as making marketers uncomfortable. It doesn't make me popular, but I hope it heartens some people who feel the same way I do.
April 20, 2017
Okay, this time they really mean it. TV is about to die.
Don't believe me? It's right here in Ad Age in black and white, another fucking article entitled "TV May Actually Die Soon." Can you believe this?
I'm just wondering how many Ad Age stories there have been over the past 15 years about TV dying?
Will they ever figure out that regardless of what the marketing and media geniuses have to say, people like television. How fucking difficult is that to understand?
As we all know, online viewing of video is "killing" traditional TV. "Nobody" watches live TV anymore. Everybody is watching video online.
That's what we've all learned from going to conferences and listening to media, marketing and digital geniuses speak. It's what we read in the trades and in the press every day.
Only problem is, it's all bullshit.
A new study released by comScore shows that of households with both traditional TV and OTT (video delivered over the internet) for every hour spent with online video people spend about 5 1/2 hours with traditional TV.
Even the top 20% of online video users spend twice as much time with traditional TV.
The bottom 50% of online video streamers, watch 98% of their video on traditional TV.
Despite the fact that Netflix has almost as many subscribers as all cable TV companies combined, and more households have Netflix than a DVR, comScore says,
"Traditional rules the roost in terms of time spent, as OTT continues to act more as supplemental viewing..."Then there's this. A report by Pivotal Research Group last week said,
"...despite the significant growth in access to SVOD (Subscription Video On Demand, e.g., Netflix, Amazon Prime, Hulu) services over the past few years, consumption of traditional TV programming has not been affected to the degree that many might expect...any expectations around the 'death of TV' because of SVOD services are likely overstated."Meanwhile, viewership of national news programming is surging. Once again, according to Pivotal,
"YTD viewing of all news-related programming on national media properties is now +12%."Last week it was up 23%.
As I speculated last year, what's likely to happen is that the internet media companies who don't call themselves media companies (Google, Facebook, Amazon, Apple) who have all the money in the world, are likely over time to buy up TV properties. This is starting to raise its head in the recent Amazon-NFL $50 million football deal.
I'm afraid we're all going to be dead long before TV is.
April 17, 2017
If you've ever doubted that most marketers are clueless, fad-jumping nitwits who drool at any shiny object, I have two words for you -- Pokémon Go.
A reminder, this was just a few months ago...
Every stupid fucking fad that comes along is now "disruptive," "game-changing," and "the future of marketing." What a clown show the marketing industry has become.